Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 77,656
2 South Dakota 68,632
3 Iowa 54,959
4 Wisconsin 53,174
5 Nebraska 47,845
6 Utah 44,803
7 Idaho 44,137
8 Mississippi 43,904
9 Alabama 42,959
10 Louisiana 42,705
11 Tennessee 42,681
12 Illinois 42,445
13 Arkansas 42,416
14 Montana 40,311
15 Florida 40,209
16 Rhode Island 38,479
17 Missouri 38,315
18 Kansas 38,273
19 Georgia 37,838
20 Nevada 37,452
21 South Carolina 36,997
22 Arizona 36,633
23 Texas 36,579
24 Oklahoma 36,566
25 Minnesota 35,791
26 Wyoming 35,384
27 Indiana 34,689
28 New Jersey 30,261
29 Kentucky 29,699
30 Alaska 29,648
31 New Mexico 28,984
32 North Carolina 28,978
33 New York 28,298
34 Delaware 28,288
35 Maryland 26,516
36 District of Columbia 26,223
37 Massachusetts 26,142
38 Michigan 25,931
39 Colorado 25,919
40 California 25,541
41 Connecticut 24,093
42 Ohio 23,479
43 Virginia 23,200
44 Puerto Rico 23,191
45 Pennsylvania 19,853
46 West Virginia 17,240
47 Washington 17,028
48 Oregon 12,774
49 Hawaii 11,585
50 New Hampshire 9,906
51 Maine 6,245
52 Vermont 4,248

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Dakota 1,659
2 North Dakota 1,625
3 Iowa 1,425
4 Wyoming 1,422
5 Wisconsin 1,325
6 Nebraska 1,206
7 Minnesota 1,005
8 Illinois 995
9 Montana 925
10 Utah 911
11 Rhode Island 866
12 Indiana 817
13 Colorado 782
14 Idaho 776
15 Missouri 728
16 New Mexico 713
17 Kansas 709
18 Michigan 695
19 Alaska 685
20 Arkansas 573
21 Ohio 555
22 Kentucky 548
23 Oklahoma 525
24 Nevada 436
25 Tennessee 426
26 Connecticut 414
27 Texas 393
28 Alabama 392
29 West Virginia 389
30 Mississippi 387
31 New Jersey 387
32 Pennsylvania 376
33 Louisiana 369
34 Massachusetts 360
35 Georgia 298
36 North Carolina 280
37 Arizona 274
38 South Carolina 265
39 Maryland 247
40 Florida 245
41 New York 232
42 Washington 223
43 Delaware 218
44 Oregon 215
45 California 199
46 District of Columbia 198
47 Puerto Rico 195
48 New Hampshire 189
49 Virginia 177
50 Vermont 126
51 Maine 125
52 Hawaii 65

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,857
2 New York 1,718
3 Massachusetts 1,485
4 Connecticut 1,325
5 Louisiana 1,311
6 Mississippi 1,180
7 Rhode Island 1,179
8 District of Columbia 930
9 North Dakota 922
10 Arizona 857
11 Illinois 856
12 Michigan 819
13 Georgia 815
14 Florida 808
15 South Carolina 793
16 Delaware 751
17 Pennsylvania 724
18 Indiana 714
19 Arkansas 710
20 Maryland 704
21 Texas 679
22 Alabama 655
23 South Dakota 640
24 Iowa 617
25 Nevada 610
26 Missouri 560
27 New Mexico 560
28 Tennessee 549
29 Minnesota 505
30 Ohio 484
31 California 459
32 Wisconsin 451
33 North Carolina 450
34 Montana 447
35 Virginia 440
36 Colorado 436
37 Idaho 421
38 Kansas 417
39 Nebraska 397
40 Kentucky 380
41 Oklahoma 374
42 New Hampshire 364
43 Washington 343
44 West Virginia 309
45 Puerto Rico 284
46 Wyoming 219
47 Utah 214
48 Oregon 177
49 Hawaii 156
50 Alaska 123
51 Maine 118
52 Vermont 94

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 23
2 South Dakota 11
3 Wisconsin 11
4 Missouri 10
5 Idaho 9
6 Nebraska 9
7 Alabama 8
8 Tennessee 8
9 Illinois 7
10 Indiana 7
11 Iowa 7
12 Minnesota 7
13 Mississippi 7
14 New Mexico 7
15 Wyoming 7
16 Georgia 6
17 Alaska 5
18 Michigan 5
19 Rhode Island 5
20 Colorado 4
21 Delaware 4
22 Montana 4
23 Pennsylvania 4
24 Texas 4
25 West Virginia 4
26 Arizona 3
27 Arkansas 3
28 Kansas 3
29 Kentucky 3
30 Louisiana 3
31 Ohio 3
32 Oklahoma 3
33 Connecticut 2
34 Florida 2
35 Maryland 2
36 Massachusetts 2
37 Nevada 2
38 New Jersey 2
39 North Carolina 2
40 Puerto Rico 2
41 South Carolina 2
42 Utah 2
43 Maine 1
44 New Hampshire 1
45 New York 1
46 Virginia 1
47 Washington 1
48 California 0
49 District of Columbia 0
50 Hawaii 0
51 Oregon 0
52 Vermont 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 181,434 1 99
Norton Kansas 179,631 2 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 176,125 3 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 172,004 4 99
Buffalo South Dakota 165,138 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 55,899 373 88
Richland South Carolina 44,694 760 75
York South Carolina 27,885 1808 42
Orange California 20,642 2319 26
Pierce Washington 15,176 2618 16

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,208 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 6,458 2 99
Hancock Georgia 5,321 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 4 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 5 99
Richland South Carolina 678 1035 67
Davidson Tennessee 539 1340 57
Orange California 479 1491 52
York South Carolina 413 1676 46
Pierce Washington 307 1987 36

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons